Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
